Markets desk · not financial advice
AI Bubble Plop
How close is the AI bubble to going plop? We read the AI and money news of the last 14 days – the paper’s feeds plus a dozen markets desks – check it against the same twelve signals every time, and add what AI stock prices are doing. How it works →
Plop-o-meter
79%
HissingYou can hear air escaping.
Nvidia lost $440 billion in a day, yet dip buyers are still shopping; the bubble is wobbling, not yet popped.
- Since last reading
- —
- From the news
- +11
- From the market
- +23.5
Read 1h ago from 240 AI stories across 50 outlets by claude-haiku-5-5.
What AI stocks say
AI basket, past month
-23.1%
Stocks push +23.5 points (capped from +43.3) – the news +11.
| Gauge | Now | Points |
|---|---|---|
| AI stocks, past monthEqual-weight change of the AI basket over 30 days. | -22.8% | +12.0 |
| AI stocks, past weekEqual-weight change of the AI basket over 7 days – catches a sudden slide. | -8.7% | +10.0 |
| Off the highsHow far the average AI stock sits below its own 3-month high. | −27.8% | +12.0 |
| Chips vs. the marketThe chip index (SOX) against the Nasdaq over the past month – is the AI trade lagging the rest? | -17.9 pts | +6.0 |
| Fear gaugeThe VIX, Wall Street’s volatility index. Calm is around 15, panic above 30. | 24.7 | +3.3 |
- CRWV CoreWeave-48.4%
- ARM Arm-41.3%
- SMCI Supermicro-36.5%
- MU Micron-36.4%
- AMD AMD-31.4%
- VRT Vertiv-25.6%
- AVGO Broadcom-21.3%
- ASML ASML-21.1%
- NVDA Nvidia-20.8%
- TSM TSMC-20.6%
- ORCL Oracle-19.1%
- GOOGL Alphabet-18.0%
- PLTR Palantir-16.8%
- META Meta-14.1%
- MSFT Microsoft+1.2%
- AMZN Amazon+1.3%
Past month, equal weight · prices from Yahoo Finance
The meter over time
The first reading is in. A new one is taken every six hours, and past days are read afterwards from the stories published by then – the line starts drawing itself soon.
What the news says
Letting air out · pushes the meter up
- ✓AI stocks tank+6 of 8
Yahoo Finance: Magnificent Seven lost $1 trillion in a tech rout, with Nvidia alone losing more than $440 billion in market value.
- Yahoo Finance · Magnificent Seven Lost $1 Trillion in Tech Rout. Here's How Much Each Plunged. ↗
- Yahoo Finance · Nvidia stock oversold setup: Key levels after a 9% drop ↗
- Techmeme · Asian tech stocks plunge amid fears US Democrats may delay data centers; Taiwan's Taiex sees a record intraday point drop, Kospi falls 8.7%, and Nikkei 6.7% (Jada Nagumo/Nikkei Asia)
- ✓Debt gets nervous+8
Bloomberg: ECB is considering a review of bank lending to data centers over AI valuation risks; Economist: credit default swaps are back in vogue amid debt-disaster fears.
- ✓Spending gets cut+8
TechCrunch: Meta warns that data center backlash could hinder AI expansion; Bloomberg Technology-linked analysis: about 40% of pending US data center capacity is in states whose new governors pledged to pause construction.
- AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch · Meta warns that election backlash against data centers could make AI expansion harder
- Techmeme · Cleanview: ~40% of pending US data center capacity is planned to be built in states where newly elected governors have pledged to stop or pause construction (Bloomberg)
- Financial Times · Will Democrats stall the AI boom? ↗
- ✓It doesn't pay off+5.3 of 7
The Register: Bank of England finds little productivity gain from AI for UK businesses despite billions spent.
- –Startups wobble0
No story reports down rounds, failed raises, shutdowns or AI startup layoffs.
- –Money goes in circles0
No story reports chipmakers or clouds investing in customers that then buy their compute or chips.
- –Too many GPUs0
No story reports falling GPU rental prices, idle data centers or cancelled chip orders.
- ✓Grown-ups say “bubble”+2.5 of 5
Yahoo Finance: A veteran chip CEO warned the data center market is in a 'bubble' on one of the worst days for AI stocks.
Pumping air in · pulls the meter down
- ✓Results beat−6 of 8
Yahoo Finance: IREN's AI cloud revenue rose 182% to $200 million in the quarter; Bloomberg: Cloudflare raised its annual profit forecast on AI demand.
- Yahoo Finance · IREN Soars 19% as AI Cloud Revenue Nearly Triples, $4 Billion ARR “Fully Contracted and Fully Funded” ↗
- Bloomberg Technology · Cloudflare Rises After AI Demand Lifts Annual Profit View
- Yahoo Finance · TeraWulf Rises 4% After Q3 Beat and Google-Backed Anthropic Lease; IREN Surges 17%, Cipher Digital Climbs 6% ↗
- ✓Spending goes up−4.5 of 6
The Verge: Big Tech is not done spending record amounts on the AI data center buildout; Yahoo Finance: TeraWulf's HPC growth is fuelled by its Anthropic lease buildout.
- ✓Money keeps pouring in−4.5 of 6
Financial Times: XN amassed a $5.3bn stake in Anthropic through private rounds and is doubling down despite the tech rout; Bloomberg Markets: Brookfield raised $25 billion in Q3, driven by AI infrastructure funding.
- ✓People actually pay−3.8 of 5
DEV Community: UK government survey shows business AI adoption doubled from 16%; Yahoo Finance: IREN's AI cloud sales doubled quarter over quarter to $200 million.
The signals, the market gauges, the weights and the sources are all published: How the plop-o-meter works →